SANTO DOMINGO. Times have changed. Gone are the predictions made by Paul, the famous octopus that captivated the world with its accurate forecasts during the 2008 European Championship and the 2010 World Cup. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and advanced statistical models are the protagonists in the race to anticipate who will lift the most coveted trophy in world football.
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A few hours before the start of the World Cup in North America, various technology platforms, consulting firms, and data analysis specialists agree in pointing to Spain, France, and Argentina as the main contenders for the title, although there are differences depending on the model used.
Paul, who achieved international fame after correctly predicting 11 out of 13 outcomes in international tournaments, made his predictions by choosing between boxes identified with the flags of the participating national teams. His method, considered a media curiosity at the time, has been replaced by systems based on thousands of variables, historical statistics, and computerized simulations.
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One of the most striking analyses comes from German mathematician Joachim Klement, known for correctly predicting the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cup champions. For this edition, however, his bet leans toward a team that is not among the top favorites: the Netherlands.
For its part, the American media group USA Today used Microsoft’s Copilot tool to project the development of the tournament. According to its calculations, France would win the championship after defeating Brazil 3-2 in the final, while Spain would take third place.
Queries made by the specialized platform Decrypt to seven artificial intelligence systems also reflect a clear trend: Spain and Argentina appear as the teams with the highest chances of reaching glory.
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Models such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 Max, Stepfun, and Nvidia’s Nemotron 3 Ultra favor Spain, while DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Qwen 3.5 place Argentina at the top of their predictions.
Another relevant study was conducted by data analyst Frank Andrade, who fed the Claude system with information from nearly 50,000 international matches and applied an ELO rating model, similar to the one used in professional chess. The results once again placed Spain as the main candidate for the title with a 27% probability, followed by Argentina with 21%.
Meanwhile, the consulting firm Hubler obtained mixed results depending on the methodology applied. Two of its models pointed to France as the champion, while a third system based on massive simulations projected Germany as the winner.
The predictions also coincide with the analyses of OPTA, one of the most prestigious sports statistics companies in the world. Its supercomputer places Spain as the favorite with a 16.08% chance of being crowned champion, ahead of France, England, and Argentina.
Bookmakers do not stray too far from these projections either. British markets place Spain at the forefront of preferences, followed by France, England, Brazil, and Argentina.
Although technology offers increasingly sophisticated tools to anticipate results, the history of football has shown that forecasts are only a reference. As happened in the era of Paul the Octopus, the final word will still be on the pitch when the ball starts rolling.
