The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns that the Central American region of the Río Lempa Trinational Border Commonwealth is facing an acute food insecurity crisis. The report identifies that 701,000 people are at risk, with the highest critical concentration in the Ch’orti’ area, located in western Honduras, where up to 35% of the population could be in Crisis or Emergency phases during the second half of 2026.
Honduras: Ch’orti’ at the epicenter of insecurity
The Ch’orti’ micro-region, located on the Honduran border, leads the impact map. Between July and October 2026, 112,000 people, equivalent to 35% of the local population, will face Crisis or Emergency (Phase 3 or 4), and 9,600 could enter Phase 4 Emergency. The report highlights that the combination of depleted food reserves, reduced agricultural employment, and rising food and fuel prices aggravates the situation.
In Ch’orti’, more than 20% of households consume a limited or poor diet and 6% are in a food emergency. The use of extreme survival strategies, such as selling work tools or exchanging labor for food, reaches the highest levels in the region. Prolonged drought, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon with a probability of impact greater than 90% until early 2027, restricts agricultural production and increases dependence on purchases.
The Ch’orti’ micro-region of Honduras will concentrate the greatest impact of food insecurity, with 112,000 people in Crisis or Emergency between July and October 2026.
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Guatemala: Pressure in Güija
In Guatemala, food insecurity is concentrated in the micro-regions of Güija and part of Ch’orti’. The projection for the seasonal hunger period estimates that 9,000 people in Güija will be in Crisis or Emergency, which represents 5% of its population.
In the Guatemalan Ch’orti’ strip, the situation is also serious, adding to the regional total. The report indicates that the rising cost of food is putting pressure on families, most of whom have already exhausted their corn and bean reserves. Food inflation has doubled in recent years and access to agricultural inputs remains limited.
In the country, food diversity is also affected: a significant proportion of households consume fewer than five food groups, while dependence on the market to acquire food increases due to crop losses and the reduction of rural jobs.
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The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification identified common factors in the Trinational Commonwealth such as food and fuel inflation, crop losses, reduced agricultural employment, and the depletion of maize and bean reserves.
El Salvador: Vulnerability in Cayaguanca
In the Cayaguanca micro-region of Chalatenango, located in the border strip of El Salvador, the proportion of the population in a critical situation is lower, but it remains a cause for concern. 3,000 people, equivalent to 5% of the local population, will face Crisis or Emergency levels during the peak of seasonal food insecurity. The report highlights that, although the situation is less severe in relative terms, the most vulnerable families have already exhausted their reserves and depend almost exclusively on purchasing food.
Low institutional participation in data collection limits detailed analysis and could underestimate the true magnitude of the problem in some Salvadoran municipalities.
In Guatemala, the Güija micro-region will record 9,000 people in Crisis or Emergency during the seasonal hunger period, while food inflation and the depletion of reserves persist.
Structural factors and regional trends
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification report identifies common factors throughout the Trinational Commonwealth: climate variability, food and fuel inflation, reduced agricultural employment, and crop losses due to drought or heavy rains. 36% of households spend more than 75% of their income on food, while 57% have already exhausted their corn reserves and 34% their bean reserves.
Since 2020, the region has experienced a sustained increase in food insecurity, with a brief improvement in 2023-2024 that was reversed in 2025-2026 due to new climate crises. The territory is part of the Central American Dry Corridor, a strip historically exposed to extreme phenomena and persistent structural vulnerability.
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The analysis by the Trinational Border Commonwealth of the Lempa River maintains that the situation requires immediate responses, focused on the communities with the greatest depletion of reserves and exposure to climate risks, as well as constant monitoring of prices, production, and vulnerability factors.
