Spanish
The Donald Trump administration has reactivated the "Big Stick" diplomacy to stop China's geopolitical advance in the region. This was stated by Juan González, political scientist and professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo (UASD).
His statements come after the publication, last Friday, of the United States' National Security Strategy 2025, a document that, as he explained, redefines Washington's strategic priorities in the world, with special emphasis on Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Indo-Pacific.
González specified that the document establishes that the United States will resort to its political, economic, and military power to prevent extra-regional powers, such as China, from deploying forces or controlling routes, infrastructure, or strategic assets in the American continent.
He expressed that, for this reason, the new National Security Strategy establishes the "Trump corollary", inspired by the corollary of Theodore Roosevelt, who was U.S. president between 1904 and 1909. Likewise, he emphasized that both foreign policy approaches, although from different eras, are based on the Monroe Doctrine, which dates back to the 19th century and is known for the famous expression: "America for Americans".
"The United States remains the most powerful nation in the world," said the expert in International Relations.
However, he warned that the new National Security Strategy shows that both the Trump administration and the US establishment recognize China's ability to displace Washington in the economic, technological, scientific and military fields in the near future. Therefore, he assured, measures are being taken to curb its rise on all fronts.
China's Growing Presence in Latin America and the Caribbean
The UASD academic recalled that, more than two decades ago, China's commercial and financial relations with the region were insignificant. However, he explained that four events paved the way for a closer relationship between China and Latin America and the Caribbean, especially with South America:
1.- The failure of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) project, proposed by the United States and rejected by the majority of South American countries.
2.- The global war on terrorism, following the September 11, 2001 attacks, which led Washington to focus on the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa.
3.- China's rise and its growing demand for natural resources, abundant in the region.
4.- The creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in 2010, with a focus on regional autonomy from the United States.
"Trade between China and Latin America in the year 2000 amounted to just over 20 billion dollars, while in the last year it exceeded 500 billion," said the university professor. He added that, if this trajectory continues, in less than a decade China could displace the United States as the region's main trading partner.
He highlighted that this trend is also reflected in the credit and investment spheres. As an example, he mentioned the inauguration of the Chancay port, in November 2024, financed with more than 3,500 million dollars by the Asian giant.
He added that the port of Chancay is part of an ambitious project that China is promoting in South America: the Central Bi-Oceanic Railway Corridor. In the same vein, he pointed out that this corridor, developed within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, seeks to connect the port of Chancay, in Peru, with the port of Santos, in Brazil, through a railway route, which would impact the Panama Canal
Trump's Corollary
"The National Security Strategy states that governments, parties, and political organizations in the region that align with U.S. interests will receive incentives and political support from Washington," said the expert in International Relations. He indicated that Trump's corollary is already being applied in the region, highlighting Washington's economic support for Argentine President Javier Milei, with more than 20 billion dollars, in exchange for halting strategic projects linked to China, such as the Far Space Station in Neuquén, which is considered to have military purposes due to the level of discretion with which the Asian superpower manages it. He also indicated that the pardon of the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, who was sentenced in the United States to more than 40 years in prison, is in the same vein. The UASD professor emphasized that the US strategy maintains that strengthening ties with its allies will generate reciprocal benefits and, at the same time, contribute to limiting China's influence in the region. Instead, the Trump administration has exerted strong pressure on Panama to cancel the management contracts for the ports of Cristóbal and Balboa, located in the Panama Canal zone. "Currently, these ports are managed by Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based company, and the administration seeks to have them transferred to a consortium of Western companies made up of Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and BlackRock, the world's largest investment fund," said the political scientist. Likewise, he stated that Mexico had to block the construction project of the largest electric vehicle plant outside of China by the company BYD. In addition, he recalled that Brazil decided in 2024 not to join the Belt and Road Initiative to avoid a deterioration in its relations with Washington. He also highlighted that the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, along with his family, as well as the Minister of the Interior, Armando Benedetti, have been sanctioned and their assets blocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a division of the Department of the Treasury, under the allegation that during his government the production of cocaine has skyrocketed to record levels. Furthermore, it was pointed out that the declaration of the so-called Cartel de los Soles, which operates in Venezuela, as a terrorist organization and which is considered by the United States as a group led by high-ranking military and high-profile politicians in the country, has caused the mobilization of thousands of U.S. soldiers in the region, something that has not been seen since the Cold War. "What is evident is that the strong military presence of the United States in the region has as its background the geopolitical struggle with China in the region and, that is the greatest expression of Trump's corollary," said the political scientist. A Call for Diplomatic Caution Finally, González warned that the growing rivalry between China and the United States forces the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to carefully design their foreign policy strategies, given that both superpowers will intensify the pressure on the states under their influence. In this sense, it was pointed out that the states of the region should resort to caution, cunning, and diplomatic subtlety, as Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, or South Korea do, in order to avoid unnecessary clashes with both superpowers and safeguard, as far as possible, the national interest.
