An asteroid that could wipe out a city now has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, According to data from the NASA published this Tuesday, making it The most threatening space rock ever recorded according to modern forecasts.
Despite the increased odds, experts say there is no need to panic. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is preparing to set its sights on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the Planetary Society, a nonprofit organization, told the AFP: “No tengo pánico”.
“Naturally, when you see the percentages going up, you don’t feel good,” he added, but explained that as astronomers collect more data, the probability will increase before quickly falling to zero.
2024 YR4 It was first detected on December 27th last year. by the El Sauce Observatory of Chile.
Astronomers estimate that It is between 40 and 90 meters wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signals suggests that it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued an alert memo on Jan. 29 after the probability of impact rose above one percent. The figure has fluctuated since then, but continues to trend upward.
NASA's latest calculations estimate the probability of impact at 3.1%, with a potential impact date on Earth of December 22, 2032.
This equates to a probability of one in 32, roughly the same as correctly predicting the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.
The last time an asteroid larger than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029, a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.
Surpassing that threshold is “historic,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, who puts the risk slightly lower, at 2.8 percent.
Webb Observations in March
“It is a very, very rare event,” he told the agency. AFP, but added: “This is not a crisis right now. It is not the killer of the dinosaurs. It is not the killer of the planet. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
Data from the Webb telescope - the most powerful space observatory - will be key to better understanding its trajectory, said Betts of the Planetary Society.
“Webb is able to see things that are very, very faint,” he said, which is key because the asteroid’s orbit is currently taking it toward Jupiter, and its next close approach won’t be until 2028.
Unlike the 10-kilometer-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a “city killer.”: It is not a global catastrophe, but it can cause significant destruction.
Its potential for devastation is due less to its size than to its speed, which could reach almost 65,000 kilometres per hour if it hits.
If it enters the Earth's atmosphere, it would most likely result in an airburst, meaning it would explode in the air with a force of about eight megatons of TNT, more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the upper end of the estimates, Betts said.
If it hits, possible impact sites include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, northern Africa, the Arabian Sea, and southern Asia., the IAWN note notes.
The good news, experts stress, is that there is plenty of time to prepare. If necessary, spacecraft could be sent to deflect the asteroid, a technology successfully demonstrated on NASA's DART 2022 mission, which altered the course of a non-threatening asteroid.
