Putin, mediator between Israel and Iran?

The Russian president, Vladímir Putin, wants to go from being unanimously considered by the West as the aggressor in Ukraine overnight to being the peacemaker in the conflict between Iran and Israel. "Russia maintains its willingness to offer, if necessary, its mediation services," said today Dmitri Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, in his daily telephone press conference. Russia is a strategic ally of Iran and, at the same time, has always maintained a pragmatic relationship with Israel, which recently denied having supplied Patriot or Barak anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine. Putin's goal is to score points with the president of the U.S., Donald Trump, in view of a settlement in Ukraine beneficial to the interests of the Kremlin, which still seeks the capitulation of its enemy.

Peacemaker in Trump's service

Putin offered Trump his services in the phone conversation they both had on June 4th and insisted on it again this weekend. This is how the international advisor to the Kremlin, Yuri Ushakov, explained it, who used the expression "possible mediating efforts", while recalling that Putin firmly condemned the Israeli bombings against his ally and advocated a "political-diplomatic" solution to the Iranian nuclear problem. Russia proposed in recent weeks "concrete steps" to reach a "mutually acceptable" agreement such as the withdrawal of Iranian highly enriched uranium and its reconversion into fuel for civilian reactors. Peskov insisted today, Monday, that this proposal is still on the table, although the U.S. demands the withdrawal of all uranium and Tehran refers to the limits included in the 2015 nuclear agreement. In response, Trump was "open" to his Russian colleague paving the way for an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program that would end the current conflict. In a frenetic diplomatic activity, Putin also offered his services to the Iranian leaders, Masud Pezeshkian, and Israeli, Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he called on June 13, to avoid an "escalation" in the Middle East.

Making hay while the sun shines

Analysts interpret Putin's attitude as a clear attempt to fish in troubled waters, as any conflict can divert attention from what is happening in Ukraine. In fact, the United States does not seem very willing to approve economic sanctions this week against Moscow at the G7 meeting, nor to approve new arms supplies for Kyiv at the next NATO summit. The Kremlin condemns Israeli aggression, but the independent Russian press highlights that Putin has done nothing to help the Islamic republic, the country whose drone supplies were vital in the first two years of the war in Ukraine. The fact is that the strategic partnership agreement signed last January by Putin and Pezeshkian does not contemplate military assistance in case of aggression, unlike the one signed in 2024 by Russia and North Korea. Furthermore, Russia has managed to launch its own production of Iranian Shahed drones in the Republic of Tatarstan, a plant that was attacked over the weekend by Ukrainian drones.

Mediate in Iran, Wage War in Ukraine

Apparently, the ultimate goal is to continue the military campaign in Ukraine, where the Russians have achieved slow but important advances in the Donbas and also in the creation of a security strip in the regions of Kharkiv and Sumy. Just as Israel sees in Iran a direct threat to its sovereignty, Russia wants the international community to understand that it also considers Ukraine a problem for its strategic security. Washington has also contributed to the cause, as last week the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, announced a reduction in military assistance to Ukraine in the next budget, arguing that the priority should be the US military. "This administration has a very different view of that conflict. We believe that a negotiated and peaceful settlement is in the best interest of both parties and of our nation," he said before the U.S. Congress. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently denounced that Washington will send to the Middle East the 20,000 missiles that it was supposed to supply to Kyiv under an agreement reached with the Joe Biden Administration. The conflict in the Middle East has also served to counteract, even if provisionally, European plans to reduce the cap on the price of Russian oil from $60 to $45. The Kremlin downplayed the European Union's plans, but the Russian economy will be grateful that the Brent barrel has risen from 63 to 75 dollars in a few days.