Spanish
Ng Cortiñas argued that in fiscal matters, the fact that the supplementary budget increased the fiscal deficit from 3.0% to 3.47% of GDP, and that public spending increased by almost RD$70 billion in the remainder of the current year, in times of economic contraction, are signals that economic agents consider it as a greater exposure to fiscal risks and a loss of fiscal sustainability, which is why they lean their decisions towards a greater demand for dollars, given the uncertain climate that awaits what remains until 2025.
In the monetary sphere, he added that the fall in the values in circulation so far this year, by around RD$150 billion, has caused those pesos to be seeking dollars in the market, given local interest rates that are not attractive in terms of profitability, which adds pressure to the exchange rate.
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In addition, the economist expanded, the liberalization of RD$81 billion of the legal reserve requirement, incorporates pressure on the demand for the US dollar.
Ng Cortinas considered that economic agents know that saving and investing in dollars outside Dominican territory, attracted by the high interest rate in the United States at no less than 4.5% in financial products with almost zero risk, along with the real interest rate that moves between negative, neutral or very low level of return, causes there to be more demand for dollars.
Another factor influencing the increased demand for dollars, which causes its exchange rate to rise and leads to the depreciation of the peso, is the revaluation of the US dollar against a basket of international currencies such as the yen, the pound sterling, and the euro, making it gain commercial importance and generating a greater appetite in economies like the Dominican Republic for the dollar.
“It is in that set of factors that the economic foundations lie, and not those of a circumstantial nature, which have driven the current rise of the dollar in the Dominican exchange market, which, from its lowest level in May to its highest in September 2025, has caused a depreciation of 8.3% of the peso”, argued Ng Cortiñas.
The economist showed as evidence that the demand situation of Dominican importers of merchandise on the occasion of Christmas 2025, which takes place between the months of August and September, is not the reason for the rise in the dollar and cited as cases, the years from 2021 to 2024, in which in the years 2023 and 2024 there was a very low depreciation of the peso of 0.43% and 0.07%, respectively and in the years 2021 and 2022, there was an appreciation of the peso against the dollar of 4.89% and 1.22%, also, respectively.
"These exchange phenomena dismantle or demystify the widespread belief of monetary authorities that the price of the dollar rises in September of each year, leading to a greater depreciation of the peso," he specified.
