Padrino López's departure cuts Russia's influence over a Chavismo seeking continuity

Caracas.- The replacement of General Vladimir Padrino López as part of a cabinet reshuffle in Venezuela cuts the influence that Russia had over the oil-producing country and marks the end of a first phase of stabilization of the government in charge of Delcy Rodríguez to guarantee the continuity of Chavismo in power, analysts told EFE. Almost ten weeks after the US military attack that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd, Rodríguez closed, with a brief message on Telegram, the period of Padrino López at the head of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB), an institution he led for more than a decade and from which he consolidated as one of the most stable faces of the Chavista leadership. "He was a pillar in Maduro's support and one of those responsible for him lasting so long in power," historian and political analyst Pedro Benítez told EFE. In his message, Rodríguez referred to Padrino López as "the first soldier in the defense" of the country.

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Inevitable Change

Padrino López's dismissal was an almost inevitable consequence after the US attack and, at the same time, a first achievement of Washington in limiting Russian influence in Venezuela, analysts pointed out. «The capture of Nicolás Maduro at the beginning of January left Padrino López in a precarious situation, given the lack of an effective response from the FANB», explained to EFE the lawyer specializing in international law Mariano de Alba. In addition to this, there are the accusations from the U.S. against the now former minister, whom they have linked to drug trafficking activities since 2020. For Benítez, this removal is a symbolic closure of this first stage without Maduro, and represents a sign of geopolitical reconfiguration. "Padrino's move is to cut the influence that Russia had in Venezuela, with which the United States is achieving one of its first objectives: to incorporate the country into its sphere of influence," he said. Both analysts agree that the designation of General Gustavo González López -former Minister of Interior and former head of military intelligence and counterintelligence- likely had the approval of Washington, although not necessarily explicitly. Cohesion However, González López is far from being a renewing face. Sanctioned by the U.S., the European Union, Canada, and Switzerland, his history raises doubts about his position and future actions. A 2020 report from the United Nations mission investigating human rights violations in Venezuela indicated that there were "reasonable grounds to believe" that González López "knew of, participated in, and contributed to" "serious violations" of rights against opponents since 2014, when he headed the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin). Despite this background, his appointment responds to Rodríguez's need to consolidate «his own circle of military support, putting people he considers loyal to him», indicated Benítez, who stressed that it is a normal process for any new president and added that in the current circumstances there is also «not much room for maneuver». De Alba, for his part, considers that González López represents a figure of consensus within the Chavista leadership that remains in power, particularly among the president, the president of the Parliament, Jorge Rodríguez, and the Minister of Interior, Diosdado Cabello. In his opinion, the appointment could facilitate, albeit in a limited way, rapprochement with Washington. While the bilateral relationship has focused on transactional interests - especially in hydrocarbons and mining - internal security remains an important axis on the US agenda. "Most likely they will bet on the FANB remaining cohesive and that with González López there may be opportunities to work on internal security issues and limitation of drug trafficking," he explained.

Continuity 

With this shift, Chavismo seeks to preserve its continuity amid a turbulent period, analysts agreed. For Benítez, the changes implemented by Rodríguez respond to "castling within the chavista nomenclature" itself, a view shared by De Alba, who added that it is a continuity adapted to a new correlation of forces, but without signs of opening towards a political transition. Also However, even with Trump's backing - who has publicly praised the acting president - stability is not guaranteed, and it is a determining factor for one of the central objectives that both governments have expressed in this new stage: attracting international investments. "Ultimately, it is a sign of possible political stability in the short term, but without substantially reducing the structural country risk for many investors," concluded De Alba.