Spanish
The growth of air traffic in developing countries, fleet renewal and the expansion of the middle classes drive the projections of the US manufacturer.
Paris.– At the International Paris Air Show at Le Bourget, Boeing presented this Monday its forecasts for the next two decades: 43,600 new commercial aircraft will be needed to meet the growing demand of airlines, a figure practically identical to that advanced days before by its European competitor Airbus.
Boeing's annual report highlights that emerging markets will represent more than 50% of the world's aircraft fleet by 2044, compared to 40% recorded in 2024. The expansion of the middle classes in these countries is one of the main drivers of the projected growth in air traffic, which is expected to increase at an average rate of 4.2%, far exceeding the growth of the global economy.
Of the new aircraft planned, around 21,000 will replace aircraft currently in service, which will improve operational efficiency and reduce fuel consumption. However, due to the net growth of the sector, the global fleet of commercial aircraft will exceed 49,600 units in 2044.
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Boeing warns that to reach this level it will be necessary to solve the current problems in the supply chain, carried over from the covid-19 pandemic. Logistical disruptions and staff reductions in many companies in the sector have caused delays in deliveries for both Boeing and Airbus, which currently cannot fulfill all orders. Despite these challenges, Boeing's senior vice president of sales and marketing, Brad McMullen, was optimistic: "Adaptability will continue to be the hallmark of this constantly evolving sector. The demand for new aircraft will continue to be strong, and we expect commercial aviation to regain its pre-pandemic growth path." Regarding the composition of the future fleet, Boeing estimates that single-aisle aircraft will dominate with 72% of the total in 2044 (compared to the current 66%), due to the rise in short-haul travel and the expansion of low-cost airlines. Meanwhile, wide-body aircraft will grow in number, but will lose relative weight, reaching about 8,320 units compared to 4,400 in 2024. Likewise, air freight will play a key role in this scenario, with an expected expansion of nearly 66% of the freighter fleet. Boeing estimates that around 2,900 cargo aircraft will be needed, including new and converted models from passenger aircraft. For its part, Airbus also recently published its estimates, calculating that 43,420 new aircraft will be needed between 2024 and 2044, a projection that includes both passenger and cargo aircraft. According to the European manufacturer, around 44% of these new aircraft will replace those that will be taken out of service, while the rest will cover new routes and capacity increases, especially in emerging economies. Both manufacturers agree that the growth of the middle classes, with about 1.5 billion additional people joining that segment in the next 20 years, will be key to sustaining demand in the air sector, particularly in regions such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.
