With an eye on Ukraine, Taiwan develops a drone fleet to deter China

Taipei, July 3 (EFE).- The formation of a large drone fleet has become one of Taiwan's defense priorities, which sees in the Ukrainian experience a clear example of how to use technology to deal with an attempted invasion by China. The island's Executive considers unmanned aerial vehicles a "strategic industry" and has set two goals: to raise the value of the sector above 1.38 billion dollars by 2030 —compared to the current 172 million— and to reach an annual production of 180,000 units for civilian use by 2028. In the event of a Chinese attack, Taiwanese factories could quickly convert their civilian production to military production and, thanks to already established supply chains, continue operating even under a possible air and sea blockade by Beijing, one of the scenarios that most concerns Taipei. "Drones are a critical part of Taiwan's defense, especially for intelligence gathering, rapid attacks, and coastal defense," says Tiunn Hong-lun, an expert at the Institute for Research on Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET), a center funded by the Taiwanese government.

Lessons from the War in Ukraine

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Taiwanese authorities have taken note of how Kyiv has compensated for its military inferiority compared to Russia through the massive use of drones, devices that have proven to be very effective in reconnaissance tasks, precision attacks, and saturation of air defenses. "The difference between a missile and a drone is collapsing in many ways. It's a cheap way to attack forces in a very precise and disruptive way," explains Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, to EFE. Due to its geographical particularities, Taiwan needs devices of "very different types and sizes": from large aircraft to cross the skies of the Strait in search of enemy ships, such as the American MQ-9B Sky Guardian, to small devices capable of attacking targets in urban and rural environments. Currently, the island is focused on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones, notes Cathy Fang, a DSET policy analyst, who insists on the need to expand the acquisition of combat-capable vehicles, both aerial and maritime. "This is not just about drones, but about how to use them," she maintains.

Production Problems

Although Taiwan is a global benchmark in the manufacturing of advanced chips and high-tech devices, its drone industry is still in its early stages: it currently only produces between 8,000 and 10,000 units per year, far from the governmental goal of 180,000 by 2028 and the 4 million that Ukraine manufactured last year. "The problem is that Taiwan didn't seriously enter the drone market five years ago. We don't have enough capacity to produce drones. We have the ability to manufacture all the components that are needed, but we lack the experience and 'know-how' to build them," laments Tiunn. Analysts are confident that the growth in demand will generate the necessary investments to increase that pace of production. Only in the first quarter of 2025, the island exported 3,426 units, practically the same as in all of 2024, and the Government has committed to acquire another 47,000 devices between now and 2028. The quality of those drones is also a key factor in terms of investment, and Taiwan, in this sense, is doing its homework: more and more local companies are developing devices equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) chips, which makes them considerably more effective than conventional models. "If there is more domestic or international acquisition, Taiwan can invest more, and if there is more demand, we will scale (production) upwards," argues Fang.

A "hell" of drones in the Strait

If Beijing launches an invasion against Taiwan, the island's army could deploy thousands of drones to stop the advance of Chinese forces and buy time for a possible response from the United States, in what the commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, Samuel Paparo, described as a "hell strategy". The geography would also play in Taipei's favor, as an amphibious assault would be extremely complex with swarms of drones flying over the beaches and the Taiwanese coast. "I wouldn't want to do an invasion like D-Day in this era of missiles and drones. We've seen that it's really tough in Ukraine, and that's a ground war. If you look at Ukraine and then at Taiwan, Taiwan is that same thing on steroids regarding the difficulty of the operation," says Kelly Grieco. Javier Castro Bugarín