Brazil closes with a 'bittersweet' feeling a year of climate prominence that it hopes to offset in 2026

Rio de Janeiro.- Brazil closed 2025 as one of the main actors in the fight against global warming by hosting COP30, but, given the modest results of the conference, it committed to lead in 2026 the design of a plan for the gradual elimination of fossil fuels. It was the first UN climate summit in the Amazon, an unprecedented event that helped reinforce the image of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government as a promoter of the energy transition, bioeconomy, and the conservation of tropical forests. The most important quote for the planet's sustainability also served to remember that Brazil has a vast capacity for renewable energy - with 88.2% of its matrix coming from hydroelectric, wind and solar sources - although the country is an expanding oil power. After a year of 'climate diplomacy', the official negotiations at COP30 left the host country with a 'bitter taste', by excluding binding commitments on deforestation and the elimination of fossil fuels. The political impetus generated by Lula's proposal to establish roadmaps to gradually abandon hydrocarbons, responsible for three-quarters of global emissions, faltered in discussions due to the opposition of nations such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and India.

The challenge continues 

As the objective could not be achieved due to lack of consensus, with more than 80 countries supporting the South American country's proposal and a similar number opposing it, the Brazilian presidency of COP30 announced, on its own initiative, processes for the elaboration of two roadmaps in 2026.

One of those action plans will focus on the phasing out of fossil fuels, and the other on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. Much of the process will take place within the framework of three important meetings prior to the climate summit in Turkey (COP31): in Colombia, in Germany, and in an island nation in the Pacific yet to be defined; and will include consultations with scientists, governments, industry, and civil society. In addition, Brazil will promote the action plan for the reduction of emissions associated with deforestation, a topic that experts believe is losing momentum. Of the 195 nations that are part of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, only 122 fulfilled the commitment to present new voluntary emission reduction targets (NDCs, for their acronym in English) more ambitious than the previous ones and with a deadline for compliance in 2035. The initial deadline for countries to submit their goals was last February. However, by the end of September, only 64 nations had submitted their NDCs, a number that only increased nine months later, at the Belém summit. The two roadmaps driven by Brazil, however, are not binding for the UN climate change conference and do not create obligations to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Brazil approves a climate plan 

Lula's government recently approved the roadmap that will guide Brazil in the implementation of its climate commitments. This is a national strategy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing the challenges of global warming. 

The Climate Plan sets ambitious goals, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the 2,040 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent recorded in 2022 to 1,200 million tons by 2030, with the intention of continuing to decrease them in 2035. The strategy contemplates a comprehensive transformation in sectors such as energy, agriculture, and transportation, and one of its priorities is to promote the increase of renewable sources and the progressive decrease in dependence on fossil fuels. It also includes policies to reduce deforestation in the Amazon and to promote ecosystem restoration and sustainable agriculture.  All this while the Lula government advances in its plans to expand its oil exploitation horizon to a region near the mouth of the Amazon River, a project that has raised doubts about the country's environmental commitment.