UN: Four million people could die of AIDS due to US cuts by 2030

Johannesburg.- The UN warned this Thursday that, if cuts in US funding to prevent and treat AIDS persist, six million new HIV infections and four million additional deaths related to the disease could occur by 2030. In a report published in Johannesburg (South Africa), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) stated that its projections point to that scenario in the case of a "permanent interruption" of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which contemplated about 4.3 billion dollars of "bilateral support" for this year.

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Worldwide programs against HIV (the virus that causes AIDS), he stressed, face "drastic and sudden reductions in funding for the global HIV response announced by the United States Government in early 2025". "These services were stopped overnight when the U.S. Government changed its foreign assistance strategies," the report, titled "AIDS, Crisis, and the Power to Transform," indicated.

Wave of fund loss

According to the document, the wave of funding cuts destabilized supply chains and led to the closure of health centers, leaving thousands of clinics understaffed, delaying prevention programs, interrupting early HIV detection, and forcing multiple community organizations to reduce or cease their activities. For example, in Mozambique alone, more than 30,000 healthcare professionals were affected, while in Nigeria the start of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP, HIV treatment) has plummeted from 40,000 to 6,000 people per month. "There is a fear that other major donor countries may withdraw from the solidarity they have maintained with the poorest countries (...). If that happens and the current cuts and freezes continue, decades of progress in the response to HIV could be reversed and the goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat (by 2030) would be in danger," UNAIDS warned. According to the UN, 1.3 million people contracted HIV in 2024, 40% less than in 2010, of whom half were in sub-Saharan Africa, where infections fell by 56% last year. In 2024, 630,000 people - 61% of them in sub-Saharan Africa - died from AIDS-related causes, 54% less than in 2010 thanks to the provision of free tests and treatments. "Five countries (Lesotho, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Zimbabwe), mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, were on track to achieve a 90% reduction in new infections by 2030 compared to 2010," the report specified. In the document, presented at the Bertha Gxowa public hospital in Johannesburg, UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima stated that international assistance accounts for 80% of prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

A "ticking time bomb"

The US aid cut "is not just a funding deficit, it's a time bomb," said Byanyima, recalling that "the response to HIV has already saved 26.9 million lives." In sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 60% of all people with HIV live, the provision of antiretroviral therapy, among other advances, has led to a rebound in life expectancy, which increased from 56.5 years in 2010 to 62.3 years in 2024. Despite everything, the Executive Director of UNAIDS pointed out that "there is still time to turn this crisis into an opportunity". "Countries - he asserted - are stepping up their support with national funds. Communities are demonstrating what works. Now we need a global solidarity that lives up to their courage and resilience." UNAIDS estimates that if the world adopts new technologies, efficiencies, and approaches, the annual cost of the HIV response could be reduced by $7 billion. "In times of crisis, the world must opt for transformation instead of retreat. Together, we can still end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 if we act with urgency, unity, and unwavering commitment," concluded Byanyima.