The private sector raises Mexico's growth forecast to 0.46% for 2025

Mexico City.- Specialists from the private sector improved the growth forecast for Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 to 0.46%, from a previous estimate of 0.2%, revealed this Monday the monthly survey of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). While the forecast for 2026 rose to 1.34%, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 1.31%, according to the average of the 42 national and foreign analysis and consulting groups surveyed by the central bank between August 18 and 28.

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These projections are released after it was revealed that Mexico's GDP grew 0.6% quarterly and 1.2% year-on-year from April to June, against the slowdown projected by international and financial organizations in the country. Experts also reduced the overall inflation outlook for the end of 2025 to an estimate of 3.95% from a previous 4.05%. This forecast comes after the inflation rate fell to 3.49% in the first half of August, after having fallen to 3.51% in July. By 2026, specialists projected that inflation would be at 3.74%, a percentage slightly lower than the 3.75% of the previous month, although it remains above the 3% target of the Mexican central bank. As factors that could hinder growth in Mexico in the next six months, experts generally highlighted: governance (39%), external economic conditions (30%), and internal economic conditions (23%). At a particular level, the policy on foreign trade (20%), public safety issues (16%), lack of rule of law (9%), weakness in the domestic market (7%), and uncertainty about the internal economic situation (7%) stood out. Analysts improved the exchange rate outlook by now estimating that the Mexican currency will close 2025 at 19.49 units per dollar, lower than the previous projection of 19.71 pesos per US bill that they predicted in July. By 2026, specialists estimate that the Mexican currency will be exchanged at 20.02 units per dollar, lower than the 20.14 estimate from the previous month. Regarding the external sector, for 2025, expectations for the trade deficit decreased to $8.802 million from the previous $9.344 million. Likewise, the forecast for foreign direct investment (FDI) was increased to a projection of 36.494 billion dollars from a previous 33.494 billion dollars.