U.S. oil companies "will not enter" Venezuela soon, despite Trump's desire

Following Washington's military attack that led to the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump has insisted that his desire now is for major American oil companies to return to extracting oil from the South American country.

However, far from the enthusiasm suggested by political discourse, the mood within the oil industry is cautious. The uncertainty regarding the future of Venezuela, added to the high sum of investment required for the South American country to return to the production levels of the 90s, keeps -for now- the heavyweights on the sidelines. An investment that is measured in "decades" Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world: about 303 billion barrels, equivalent to 17% of the global total. Most of it is located in the Orinoco Belt, in the form of extra-heavy crude oil that requires advanced technology and large investments to be exploited.

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In the nineties, the country produced about 3.5 million barrels per day. Today it barely reaches one million. International sanctions - led by Washington - along with poor government management and the economic crisis led to a deep deterioration of the industry in the country. Reviving the sector and increasing production would require a capital investment of between 8,000 and 9,000 million dollars annually for the next 14 years, according to an analysis published this Monday by the firm Rystad Energy. As Mark Jones, professor of Latin American Studies at Rice University in Houston, Texas, explains, "the time horizon for the type of investment we are talking about in Venezuela is measured in decades, not years." Chevron is the only US oil company that still has operations in Venezuela, after in 2007 former President Hugo Chávez nationalized the last oil fields operated by the private sector, forcing large foreign companies to accept majority control by the state, through Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) or leave the country. Even with the participation of Chevron —whose joint ventures contribute around 27% of national production, some 242,000 barrels per day— Venezuela remains a marginal player, with less than 1% of the world supply. Contrary to what Trump has stated, a slight increase in crude production in Venezuela in the short term would have a "minimal" impact on the market and oil prices, experts say, especially in a context where oil is at its lowest value since 2020, at an average of 69 dollars a barrel. "An important part of Trump's political base is against foreign intervention and one of the ways the president has to try to calm them is by saying that (the intervention in Venezuela) is beneficial for the U.S. economy," Jones indicated. The uncertainty about the country's political future, the memory of a past of nationalization policies of foreign assets, and the low price of the barrel keep major oil companies, such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, skeptical about a return to Venezuela. Even before the U.S. intervened and deposed Maduro, the White House was already having conversations with oil companies and encountered the same response as now: we have no desire to invest in Venezuela, according to reports on CNN and the Politico portal. Discomfort for the local industry
Although oil production in the U.S. is at historic highs (around 13.5-13.9 million barrels per day), the growth rate is slowing down because less drilling is being done, due to the fall in the price of the barrel and tariffs, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA). For Kirk Edwards, CEO of the energy company based in Odessa, Texas, Trump's insistence on investing in Venezuela sends the wrong message to American producers. "We are sending our jobs and wealth overseas, instead of maintaining adequate prices in the United States so that our people can continue drilling."