Mexico.- The expected drop of more than 5% in remittances to Mexico by the end of 2025, which would end eleven years of increases, will leave thousands of families, especially in a dozen states, with fewer resources in a context marked by the aggressive migration policies of US President Donald Trump.
According to specialists consulted by EFE, the expected drop is due to the tightening of immigration policy and the deterioration of the labor market in the United States, being the main country of origin of remittances to Mexico, while the weakness of the dollar against the peso also reduces the purchasing power of these remittances.
In this regard, Enrique Díaz-Infante, an academic at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), estimated that remittances could close 2025 with an approximate fall of 5.8%, which would imply income of around 61,000 million dollars, about 3,700 million less than in 2024, after more than a decade of continuous growth.
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Migration policy affects remittances to Mexico
For her part, the director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base, Gabriela Siller, predicted that remittances will end the year with a 5% drop, in nominal terms, and attributed the setback to the fact that "the migrant population in the United States is afraid to go out to work due to the possibility of being deported", as well as to a deterioration in the US labor market.
"Furthermore, remittance recipients in Mexico have also been seriously affected by the appreciation of the Mexican peso, which has caused remittances to fall not only in dollars, but also to deepen the fall in purchasing power," added Siller.
By 2026, the outlook for remittances to Mexico will be no less challenging.
Siller pointed out that "this situation will continue next year", while Díaz-Infante warned that "if US migration policies are maintained, the downward trend could continue in 2026".
Meanwhile, a report from the Mexican bank Banorte projected that, in 2026, flows will depend more on structural factors, such as the economic activity of the U.S., the labor market, and "tensions for the migrant community."
Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Oaxaca, and Zacatecas, the most affected states
By state, Siller warned that there are entities with high dependency, where "remittances represent at least 10% of their GDP", such as Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Oaxaca and Zacatecas, in central and southern Mexico.
"Remittances directly affect household consumption because if this income is not available, then there is no way to continue buying the same things," warned the specialist.
For his part, Díaz-Infante added that the reduction in flow "negatively affects the reduction of poverty and social mobility", as they are income that is channeled mainly to food and health.
According to data from the Bank of Mexico, the average remittance to the country reached 394 dollars, equivalent to about 7,000 pesos.
Finally, the recent Financial Culture Report from Tecnológico de Monterrey warned that remittance channels, while they may be formal, informal remittances "proliferate when official channels are expensive, inaccessible or restricted".
The text warns that this informality includes "sending cash with a family member or acquaintance", the use of "mules" or traveling messengers, and parallel networks that operate without transparency and user protection standards.
In 2024, Mexico received 64.746 billion dollars in remittances, which positioned the country as the second-largest recipient of these currencies worldwide, only behind India.
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