Mamdani leads Cuomo in final New York primary simulation, according to Emerson College poll

New York.– A new Emerson College poll in partnership with Pix 11 and The Hill shows an unexpected turn in the race for the New York City mayoralty: Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani surpasses former governor Andrew Cuomo for the first time in the final simulated vote by order of preference, a key system in these Democratic primary elections.

Although in a hypothetical first round Cuomo appears with a narrow lead of three points (35% versus 32% for Mamdani), the scenario changes after several rounds of vote redistribution. In the eighth and final round of the ranked-choice voting system, Mamdani reaches 51.8% against Cuomo's 48.2%, marking a meteoric rise from the 1% support he registered just five months ago.

"Mamdani's support has grown significantly while Cuomo remains close to where he started," explained Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling. Mamdani's advance was fueled by the endorsement of Comptroller Brad Lander, whose voters migrated in their majority towards the assemblyman after he was eliminated in the intermediate rounds. In contrast, the data reflects a more favorable scenario for Cuomo among voters who have not yet cast their vote. The former governor leads with 36% against Mamdani's 31% among voters who plan to go to the polls this Tuesday. However, in early voting, Mamdani is ahead with 41% against 31%.

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The poll, conducted from June 18 to 20 with a sample of 729 potential Democratic voters, has a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points, which confirms that the race is still very close and open. With the backing of the Working Families Party and sustained momentum in the polls, Mamdani could establish himself as one of the political surprises of the year, in a process where every vote — and every second or third choice — can tip the scales.