Under siege and without allies: Iran intensifies its attacks in the Middle East while China and Russia opt for caution

With its supreme leader dead and its war machine under relentless US pressure, Iran now finds itself virtually alone: its long-standing partners, Russia and China, offer nothing more than diplomatic condemnations and expressions of concern. Tehran has responded to US and Israeli attacks by expanding the conflict beyond the Middle East, firing missiles and drones with an impact that is resonating in the global energy markets, shaking capitals from Washington to Beijing and paralyzing the maritime transport that carries 20% of the world's oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian missiles reached places as far away as Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the Gulf countries, bringing the war to their own borders by attacking critical businesses, energy infrastructure, and U.S. bases. Oil facilities, refineries, and key supply routes were hit, causing serious disruptions in the supply of crude oil and natural gas.

"Cold Calculation"

With the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the attacks have driven up the energy prices, destabilizing global markets and forcing major economies to struggle, highlighting the world's exposure to the consequences of Tehran's response to the war. Russia and China's restraint reflects a cold calculation, analysts say: intervening while Iran confronts Israel and the United States would bring high costs, limited gains, and unpredictable risks, burdens that neither power seems willing to assume. “Putin has other priorities, and the main one is Ukraine,” declared Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute. “It would be foolish for Russia to enter into a direct military confrontation with the United States.” A high-ranking Russian source stated: "The escalation in and around Iran, as well as in the Gulf, is already diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. It's a fact. Everything else is mere emotions about a 'fallen ally'", he added. Both Beijing and Moscow have helped Iran develop military capabilities to counter US and Israeli pressure, supplying it with missiles, air defense systems, and technology aimed at reinforcing deterrence, complicating US operations, and increasing the cost of attacks. However, that support now appears limited.

Stark Paradox

China has spent years meddling in Middle Eastern diplomacy, while Russia has made Iran a pillar of its anti-Western alignment.

However, as the conflict erupted, both powers found themselves constrained: China by its dependence on energy and trade from the Gulf and by security priorities in Asia, and Russia by a wearying war in Ukraine that has undermined its ability to protect its partners and sharpened its need to preserve ties with the oil-rich Gulf states.

The result is an absolute paradox: Iran remains strategically useful to both, but not useful enough to fight over.

With the diplomatic and military bandwidth and the economic resources of Russia still absorbed by the war in Ukraine, the priority of President Vladimir Putin is to avoid an escalation with Washington and safeguard Russia's interests in the Middle East, rather than betting on Iran's fate on the battlefield.

"If Russia had directly supported Iran, it would have distanced itself from the Gulf countries and Israel," said Borshchevskaya. "That's not what Putin wants." Beijing's measured response reflects a long-standing strategy: avoiding binding security commitments that are far from its core interests.

The Alliances with China

Unlike the United States, whose alliances are based on mutual defense obligations, China prefers partnerships based on trade, investment, and arms sales, ties that will not drag it into costly conflicts beyond East Asia, said Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Beijing, one of the world's largest trading powers and energy buyers, maintains links with Iran and its Sunni rivals in the Gulf and, in Latin America, never put all its bets only on Venezuela. “If Beijing wanted to do more, it would not divert its strategic attention or military resources from fundamental security,” argues Henry Tugendhat of the Washington Institute. “It only cares about its prestige abroad. It cares about Taiwan, the South China Sea, and perceived threats from the United States and Japan.” The conflict could even bring advantages for Beijing. From the sidelines, China can observe how US forces are held far from East Asia and how their military arsenals are depleted, while gaining a real-time view of US capabilities and operations, information that could guide its analysis of the future Taiwan scenario. China's main vulnerability remains the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 45% of its oil imports pass. However, according to experts, Beijing has accumulated strategic reserves and substantial volumes of Iranian oil that are already in tankers or warehouses. They claim that the crisis has allowed Moscow and Beijing to rethink their role as mediators. China indicated that the Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, has spoken with European and Arab ministers to promote dialogue, while Putin has held similar talks with Gulf leaders and Iranian officials.

The price of oil helps Russia

Russia also sees concrete benefits: the increase in oil prices strengthens its war economy and a US administration tied to the Middle East has less bandwidth for Ukraine. Russia does not benefit from the collapse of the Iranian regime, but neither does it link its fate to Tehran's survival, Borshchevskaya said. Moscow is evading risks, maintaining flexibility, regardless of the outcome of the conflict, and would establish ties with any new government, even one aligned with Washington. The Russian source pointed to Syria as a precedent. Despite having supported the overthrown president Bashar al-Assad for years, Moscow maintained its bases in the Mediterranean and quickly forged links with the new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, underlining its willingness to sacrifice loyalty for long-term influence.